The American Trucking Associations (ATA) has released its much-anticipated annual freight forecast, signaling an optimistic outlook for the trucking industry after two years of decline. According to the latest projections, the volume of freight transported by trucks is expected to grow by 1.6% in 2025. Over the long term, this growth trajectory will lead to nearly 14 billion tons of freight moved by trucks by 2035.
In the ATA’s Freight Transportation Forecast 2024 to 2035, a report compiled in collaboration with S&P Global Market Intelligence, the trucking industry continues to show its dominance in the freight sector. Bob Costello, the ATA’s Chief Economist, emphasized that trucking will remain the cornerstone of freight transportation, controlling a staggering 72.7% of total freight tonnage and accounting for 76.9% of freight revenues in 2024.
“Our forecast shows that trucking will maintain its leadership position in the transportation sector over the next decade,” said Costello. “As the U.S. economy continues to rely on trucks for the movement of goods, we expect this market share to remain remarkably stable.”
The outlook for trucking volumes is undeniably positive. The total tonnage hauled by trucks, which is expected to reach 11.27 billion tons in 2024, will rise steadily to 13.99 billion tons by 2035. This increase reflects the strong demand for trucking services, driven by both consumer spending and industrial activity.
In line with this rise in tonnage, revenues in the trucking sector will experience substantial growth. From an estimated $906 billion in 2024, trucking revenues are projected to soar to $1.46 trillion by 2035. This will make trucking even more integral to the freight market, with the industry maintaining a share of approximately 76.8% of the freight transportation market by the forecast’s conclusion.
While the trucking industry continues to thrive, other modes of freight transportation are expected to experience varied trends. Railroads, which have traditionally been a key player in freight logistics, will see a slight decrease in their market share. The share of freight tonnage moved by rail is anticipated to drop from 10.6% in 2024 to 9.9% by 2035. This decline is largely attributed to decreased coal volumes, which have been a significant component of rail freight in recent decades.
However, rail freight will not be stagnant. Intermodal rail tonnage, which involves the combined use of rail and trucks for freight transport, is expected to grow steadily. From 2024 through 2030, intermodal rail tonnage is projected to rise by 2.9%, followed by a more moderate growth of 2.8% from 2031 to 2035.
Other freight transportation modes are also expected to experience growth in the coming years. Air cargo, domestic waterborne transportation, and pipelines are all projected to see increases in tonnage between 2024 and 2035. These modes will continue to complement trucking by handling specific types of cargo, such as time-sensitive goods or bulk materials.
The 2025 freight forecast by the ATA presents a promising picture for the trucking industry, which is set to grow both in terms of volume and revenue over the next decade. While other transportation modes such as rail and air cargo will continue to serve their niche markets, trucking will retain its dominant role in the U.S. freight sector. As Bob Costello noted, “The trucking industry’s ability to adapt and meet the growing demands of the economy will be key to its continued success and dominance in the years ahead.
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